Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Planning Upcoming Workshop: Predicting 2008 Local Voting Results


One of the three GIS workshops we have planned for the Fall 2008 semester is entitled 'Predict 2008 Voting Patterns Across Neighborhoods in Texas'. It is not scheduled until late October, so it is oh so far from being done, but here is how we are planning to go about it.

By Texas neighborhoods, I really mean that each workshop participant will estimate how voters will vote in each Voter Tabulation District (VTD) in Texas. This can be then grouped to form neighborhoods, especially in urban areas.

There will be three parts to the exercise.
  1. Participants will first predict voting by using the previous two presidential election results (2000, 2004) and the previous two gubernatorial results (2002, 2006).
    1. Data source: Texas Legislative Council: Redistricting FTP Site
    2. Participants will build an estimation layer by compiling a weighted average of the four election datasets provided, as well as rates of change between these elections. Everyone will be able to specify which attributes are included in the analysis and what each weight will be.
  2. Participants will then explore the bivariate correlation between various demographic attributes and previous election results, such as income or Hispanic population.
    1. We will use the Linear Regression (bivariate) ArcMap extension, written by Michael Sawada, of the University of Ottawa.
    2. After exploring these tabular relationships, participants can decide whether to use any of these demographics to adjust their estimation layer created in the first step.
  3. Participants will then have the option to enable random occurrences to adjust their estimation layer for them. This one should be a lot of fun, as a random number generator will specify a last-minute political scandal, natural disaster, or economic crisis that will further adjust the estimates.
Of course, this will all be automated using a combination of Python scripting and the Model Builder. so participants can concentrate on their research and the enormous potential that GIS lends to this type of analysis.

It is scheduled for one week before election day, so we are hoping this hot topic will be a further draw for students and faculty.

Just for kicks, I created a Google Maps webpage showing % votes for Bush in 2004 and total votes for each candidate by VTD for Tarrant County, TX.

4 comments:

megan said...

Hello,

I am a political science PhD student and I'm interested in using these techniques in my research. Can you direct me to literature employing these tools within political science?

Many thanks,
megan.

Ann said...

Fashion trends change on daily basis, like Gold GHD. Now the summer is coming, Burberry Sunglasses is on hot sale. What’s more, we believe ourED Hardy Sunglasses will definitely satisfy your taste too. ED Hardy chain makes people enjoy the cheap ED Hardy Clothing range easily at our ED Hardy Outlet. As we all know, in fact discount ED Hardy, is based on the newest fashion trend. The reason is simple: fashion is prohibited by fashion items, for exemple: polo boots, in other words, we can say it as polo shoes. Would you like to wear cheap ugg boots? We also welcome to our paul smith outlet and other outlets. And there are different products, like GHD, ED Hardy, UGG, Paul Smith and brand Sunglasses. For those who desire for a pair of ugg boots but have to refrain themselves from buying one pair of cheapugg boots, there are some companies that offer discount ugg boots.

Maria said...

Good Morning Children Ltd was first thought of in February 2006 with the company being launched in April 2006, closely followed by the website launch in Semptember 2006.  It is run by Mike and Chrissie who have about 50 years of teaching experience between them, plus five academic years of providing our resources to the primary education market.  Our rapidly expanding business has led to thousands of classes in the UK and beyond regularly using our resources.
Creative Thinking Skills
Primary Teaching Resources
Thinking and Reasoning

Moe Nawaz said...

UK Advice, nationally recognised as a business insolvency and business liquidation helper for business owners and company directors in UK, we arrange a meeting to your office or any place of work at no cost to you. Contact us today at our business liquidation helpline for free at 0800 24 0800.
Business Insolvency
Business Liquidation
Business Bankruptcy
Business Insolvency
Company Insolvency
Company Liquidation
Business Bankruptcy
Winding Up Petition
Company Debts
Pre Pack Administration
Business Debts
Insolvency Offices
Insolvency Auditor
Company Voluntary Arrangement
Birmingham Insolvency
London Insolvency
Manchester Insolvency